Posted in Uncategorized | By Marc |
Food for thought! A tricky situation up ahead. You have two options!
Low pressure over the SW part of Norway and high pressure NE of Norway on Wednesday 20 may. In between the two systems a North- Easterly flow.
The low is developing along the North coast of Norway on Wednesday evening. Center at 72°N 21°W. The low moves NE and settles between Norway and Svalbard. This will give a Westerly flow along the Norwegian coast and an Easterly flow north of Bjornoya.
Thursday 21 May: the low moves further NE resulting into a strong SW-ly flow (20-25 kts)
Friday 22 May: the first low is East of Svalbard. But from the West a new very active low pressure system is approaching.
Saturday 23 may: a new low reaches Bjornoya giving strong winds again (35kts and more).
Sunday 24 May: the low moves East again.
A low develops over Svalbard giving at first a moderate (15 kts) and later strengthening (25 kts) SW-ly flow between Norway and Svalbard. So Monday and Tuesday are looking very fine.
On Wednesday 27 May a new low arrives on the Northern coast of Norway giving a N-ly flow
The several moving lows are making the forecast low in confidence. We will have to wait and see what happens the next days.
A direct crossing is no option!
Two alternative options:
- First option: on Thursday there is the possibility to move North along the coast to Tromso and wait for the situation (SW-ly flow after the weekend) - This is the safest option!
- Second option: leaving on Wednesday morning for a crossing to Bjornoya, if you leave on Wednesday morning the risk of 25 kts on arrival at Bjornoya is lower. If you take this option you must be very sure to have good shelter on Bjornoya for the strong winds around the low on Saturday!!!!! Is there good shelter??
- Wednesday 20 May: NE 10-15 kts becoming NNW 10 kts
- Thursday 21 May: WNW 15 kts becoming W 25 kts
- Friday 22 May: SSW 15-20 kts becoming SE 10 kts
- Saturday 23 May: Low over Bjornoya: North of the Island: N 35 kt, south of the island: W 35 kts
- Sunday 24 May: N-NNW 10-15 kts and later dropping
- Monday 25 May: SW 10 kt backing S to SSW 25 kts
- Tuesday 26 May: S 20 kts veering SW 15 kts
- Wednesday 27 May: a new low arrives on the northern coast of Norway giving a Northerly flow
To be continued!