Archive for June, 2011

First Summer North Pole Expedition: Forecast 23 June

Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

coast2

This image from Envisat shows the coastline of the extreme Northern coast of Ellsmere with the Arctic Ocean. Click on the image to see the full display. (c) Kongsberg

First Summer North Pole Expedition - Cecilie Skogg and Rune Gjeldnes -2011

Forecast - 23 June 2011 - day 24

General situation
The synoptic situation shows a high pressure system over Greenland with a center of 1032hPa near N75/W32 and a depression over the Arctic Ocean with a core value of 1012hPa near the Pole. The former is declining a little during the next 24 hrs whilst moving to the SouthEast. This allows the Arctic depression to move towards Ellsmere but due to a lack of pos vorticity this system fills and flattens out.
As a consequence the wind will slowly decrease and, starting from tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, the risk for fog increases again.

Day 1 - 23 June - Position: 83.6/-77
-temperatures: -2C/0C
-wind: day: W 5-7ms after 9/12utc becoming less than 3ms from variable directions.
       night:  after 21/24utc again increasing to E 3-5ms.
-clouds/weather: cloudy periods with probably some patchy slight sleet/rain. In between a few short/weak sunny spells
-ice drift: moderate towards sector E, weakening. After 24/03utc turning towards the W sector
 
Day 2 - 24 June- position: 83.5/-77
-temperatures: around 0C
-wind  day: NE 4-7ms after 18/21utc becoming N to NNE 2-4ms.
       night: no significant change.
-clouds/weather: very cloudy with mainly higher clouds. After 15/18utc(weak) sunny spells develop, conditions steadily improve.
-ice drift: towards sector W slowly shifting towards SW.
 
Day 3 - 25 June - Position: 83.4/-77
-temperatures: -2C/+1C 
-wind: day: around 3-4ms from N, further decreasing
       night: becoming weak to calm after 21/24utc.
-clouds/weather: increasing risk for fog patches. Above clear and sunny.
-ice drift: weak to S sector

Remarks
wind speed is an average value
wind speed is expressed in ms (meter per second)
temperatures are air temperatures and not wind chill (degrees Celcius)
orientation: NOT grid, the meredian through your location is the N-S orientation

First Summer North Pole Expedition: Forecast 19 June

Sunday, June 19th, 2011

sat11 

This image shows the latest sat shot of  Norhtern Greenland and the Arctic. The red arrow shows the latest position of Rune and Cecilie. At the moment the temperatures are above freezing nearly all the time which makes the snowy surface slushy and hard going. No improving, read cooling, for the next few days either. Click on the image to see the full display. (c) Canadian Met Office

First Summer North Pole Expedition - Cecilie Skogg and Rune Gjeldnes -2011

Forecast - 19 June 2011 - day 20

General situation
Same synoptic pattern dominates the weather conditions: a big anticyclone with a shallow low over the Queen Elisabeth Islands that steers quite a lot of moisture towards the area where Rune and Cecilie are. Towards the end of these three days there is a slight improvement with enlarging sunny periods.
So it remains warm, very cloudy with outbreaks of slight rain. Day three looks like there is going to be more sun, but it stays warm.

Day 1 - 19 June - Position: 83.50/-77
-temperatures: 0C/+2C
-wind: day: SW 3-6ms, after 15/18utc becoming SW 5-7ms.
       night:  no significant change.
-clouds/weather: mostly very cloudy/overcast now and than outbreaks of slight rain
-ice drift: moderate towards sector E to NE
 
Day 2 - 20 June- position: 83.60/-77
-temperatures: +2C/+4C
-wind  day: SW 4-7ms
       night: no significant change.
-clouds/weather: mostly very cloudy to overcast with possibly outbreaks of slight rain-
-ice drift: moderate towards sector E to NE .
 
Day 3 - 21 June - Position: 83.70/-77
-temperatures: +2C/+4C 
-wind: day: SW 3-6ms after 15/18utc S 2-4ms
       night: no significant change.
-clouds/weather: gradually thinning and decreasing cloudiness-enlarging sunny spells
-ice drift: towards  NE, decreasing

Remarks
wind speed is an average value
wind speed is expressed in ms (meter per second)
temperatures are air temperatures and not wind chill (degrees Celcius)
orientation: NOT grid, the meredian through your location is the N-S orientation

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