Forecast Kilimanjaro - 15 August
1. General situation-general considerations for the period 15-20 August.
In this time of the season cloud tops go in general up to somewhere between 4600/4800mr during the day, whilst in general the clouds become thinner and tops lower after 18/21utc. However also over night a lot of moisture is kept in the lower levels of the mountain where moist conditions prevail.
Concerning precipitation i do not expect a lot (or even none) precip above 5000mr. In the lower levels (below 4000mr) there seems to be a permanent moist layer that produces slight rain or even drizzle. Sometimes at night this clears for a while. I would expect the driest conditions between 00 and 6/9utc.
Winds all along the mountain seem to be fairly week. There is a definite separation between two kinds of wind: upslope during the day, downslope during the night. Around the level of 5000mr there is a boundary of weak/calm winds: below the wind blows in general from the South to East, above this layer the wind turns to the North to West. But in general the winds are not too high, some thermal winds that generate instability, can trigger some stronger unstable winds during the day but those calm down during the evening and night.
Take in account that due to instability down draught winds could trigger higher gusts. (this could happen mostly after 12utc)
Take in account that temperatures at night could drop significantly when wind becomes nil and sky clears.
2. Weather and Wind
Day 1: 15 Aug
3000m: S 6-8kt tempo 8-12kt - Temperature: +5C
4000m: S 4-6kt tempo 6-10kt - Temperature: +1C
5000m: variable directions 0—5kt - Temperature: -2C
5895m: N 4—8kt - Temperature: -7C
-weather: clouds build up to 4 to 4500mr clear above, daily showers/rain below. Clearing after 18utc.
Day 2: 16 Aug
3000m: SE 6-10kt - Temperature: +4C
4000m: VAR 2-6kt - Temperature: +2C
5000m: calm/weak - Temperature: -2C
5895m: N to W 6-10kt - Temperature: -6C
-weather: looks like a pretty sunny start but expect cloud building again after 6/9utc, gradually rising tops going up to 4000mr-clear above. Clouds clearing again after 18utc.
Day 3: 17 Aug
3000m: VAR 3—8kt - Temperature: +3C
4000m: Weak from East - Temperature: +2C
5000m: Calm - Temperature: -1C
5895m: Weak from VAR - Temperature: -6C
-weather: clouds below 3000mr, clear above. Clouds build and rise again, tops up to 3500 max 4000mr. Gradually clearing again after 21utc
Day 4: 18 Aug
3000m: VAR 2-6kt - Temperature: +3C
4000m: VAR 0-5kt - Temperature: +1C
5000m: SW 4-8kt - Temperature: -1C
5895m: SW 5-10kt - Temperature: -6C
-weather: fairly sunny start with later during the day cloud tops rising max 3/3500mr. Looks like it stays cloudy/moist below 3500mr, also after 21utc.
Day 5: 19 Aug
3000m: VAR 2-6kt - Temperature: +2C
4000m: VAR 2-6kt - Temperature: +1C
5000m: VAR 2-6kt- Temperature: -1C
5895m: weak/calm- Temperature: -6C
-weather: looks like a pretty cloudy day with top of clouds around 5 to 5500mr, possibly some showery outbreaks. Moist.
3. Graphical product to Illustrate the forecast: Kilimanjaro Meteogram